Friday, June 20, 2008

Thailand's Fiscal Economic Stimulus Policy

Thailand's Fiscal Economic Stimulus Policy

Posted by Tawan , Reader : 304 , 12:14:11
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Recent blogs have raised some very interesting questions. I have been trying to answer this myself but I cannot get past Government 101 maybe you can help.
As far as a fiscal stimulus package for the Thai economy, it follows the same path as the U.S. that just passed a fiscal stimulus package to avoid a recession. The decision for the U.S. is plain to see because the consumer makes up 80% of GDP.
This raises the question will a fiscal stimulus package bring back politics and business as usual? I may be wrong but is this not a basic principle of Democracy? The people elect representatives to represent their own special interests. A Democracy requires that the majority rules. A majority is 51% so the majority gets the spoils while the 49% minority waits for the crumbs that are left over or until the trickledown effect kicks in and wealth is more evenly distributed. How long does this take?

Increasing exports has been Asia’s main economic engine for a long time while consumer demand has been discouraged and savings encouraged. Today’s main benefactors of this policy are Japan and China. Japan has always exported its way out of trouble. Although, according to Bloomberg Japan is already in a recession. With Japan being in a recession there is not much hope for foreign investment to boast Thailand’s economy. Japan was the main investor after 1997 in growing Thailand’s export industry and also allowing Thailand to build up her foreign reserves.

Decoupling from the U.S. economy requires that Asia develops its domestic demand as India and China are doing. So the old tool of exporting Thailand out of trouble is not going to work for Thailand or Japan. Japan is solving this problem by making sure its labor resources are being trained in advanced knowledge based economy not just knowledge based. An appreciating baht and a weaker dollar has led to Thailand diversifying her exports away from the U.S. that only requires the cheapest price but this diversification to Europe and Japan that requires quality instead of the cheapest price means it is a much smaller niche market for Thai exports. The main question for Thai exports is what comparative advantage do Thai exports have? There are only so many widgets that a country can export and comparative advantages are won and lost quickly in a Globalized economy. So what widgets that Thailand can export that others are not doing?

Globalized labor markets are also following incremental steps from vocational skills, knowledge based to advanced knowledge based that all require a passport and a willingness to work anywhere in the world not just within one’s own borders. Thailand has been exporting labor for a long time now and importing labor to keep domestic prices down.

External problems abound from 100 dollar barrel of oil to the world wide credit crunch. Any 5 to 10 year economic development plan has so many variables to plan for.
Democracy itself is changing at a faster rate than our Grandparents day. We have only enjoyed a brief time of Democracy. The Great Depression was not so long ago with our Grandparents standing in soup lines and begging for pennies.
An alarming change in Democracy is the increasing use of Executive powers. The theory that Congress the people’s representatives are not qualified to make decisions erases the checks and balances between the Executive branch, Judicial and Congress. That one man only is right and actions are not allowed to be debated in Congress because of Executive powers. The master of words the Office of Legal Council make all covert actions and decision by the Executive branch legal in the written laws. No accountability or responsibility is taken into account because all actions are legal until overturned later by the Supreme Court. This is unchartered territory which will produce legalized Dictators by the OLC Master of the written word.

For Thailand to be afraid of pork barrel practices called earmarks in the advanced Democracies and are legal because they are law, does not make sense after all Democracy is electing representatives to promote your special interest.

Poor People Have Eyes

Poor People Have Eyes

Posted by Tawan , Reader : 227 , 18:56:34
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I wonder what percentage of poor people are really stupid. If you go back several decades the Imperialist powers at the time probably thought the same thing as is reported in the media and held dearly by the so called elite of today, that all poor people are stupid and thus Empires and Colonies were lost.

If the elite can remember their basic biology class at their Ivy League Schools, of course, in-between the cell phone calls and text messaging, they might recall most humans Poor people included have eyes and ears. They hear everything you say and they see everything you do. And yes their day will come and they will remember who treated them well and who spoke to them in the elitist polite tone filled with sarcasm that assumedly no Poor person could understand.

I do not gamble but I am willing to bet the percentage of Poor people that are really stupid matches the percentage of Rich people that are really stupid. You do not need to go back to Statistics 101, just look around you; sub-prime algorithms based AAA grade investment funds. How many stupid Rich people lose their money every day? Or how many Rich kids can not even put a sentence together or have lost all their people skills from playing computer games and live off of mommy and daddy’s money despite spending a small fortune on their education with zero percent return on investment not able to earn one baht their self only spend. How many stupid PhDs have you met that can only talk to a white board. How many times an important event happened at your company but because you talk to your employees like a dog no one tells you about it. I wonder why?

In all societies throughout history information has brought down the elite that have forgotten that Poor people are human beings too and yes, Poor people have eyes and ears. The Lao maid that you talk to like a dog and pay like one just because you can take advantage of her Immigration status hears everything you say and sees everything you do. The Poor Issan farmer has eyes and ears also. The Poor Mexican construction worker in America is building houses and because he lives with 10 other persons can save $24,000 USD to build his dream back home. How many middle class Americans can do that in the worlds so called advanced society? Yes, Poor people will find away and they will not forget the elite that climbed on their backs to get to the top.

But Poor people do remember who treated them with respect. However you define it haves and have nots rich and poor Empires have been lost by assuming Poor people are stupid. Many people have forgotten that the world is round. Information is funny travels downward quickly but not upwards so easily I guess it must be gravity.

Tawan

Merlin has won BOT forced out

Merlin has won BOT forced out

Posted by Tawan , Reader : 269 , 10:01:24
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The Finance Ministry plans to ask the BOT to abandon its unpopular capital control measures and instead force the BOT to adopt an exchange rate target for the baht that copies regional currencies.
Thailand knows what is coming down the road after the credit crunch is over. Emerging Market economies growth for the first time is fueling the global economic engine instead of the US consumer. The US dollar will get weaker and weaker and Asia's currencies stronger.
Despite IMF warnings that Thailand will lose flexibility to respond to future world shocks. Merlin has decided that Thailand's financial markets will remain primitive. Who is not surprised?

Happy Birthday Udon Thani

Happy Birthday Udon Thani

Posted by Tawan , Reader : 218 , 13:41:25
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I just wanted to wish Happy Birthday to Udon Thani.

Democratic Lessons by the World's most Advanced Society

Democratic Lessons by the World's most Advanced Society

Posted by Tawan , Reader : 255 , 11:22:17
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Democratic Lessons to be Learned by watching the World’s Most Advanced Society
Want to get rid of corruption? Want to have a Democratic nation in the eyes of the world? This is so simple to do just follow the leader.

This is a golden time for the ambitious to step forward. Want to increase your family fortune a hundred fold politics is the answer. Only one U.S. president went into office from a simple wooden house and left office with the same assets, no increase in wealth obviously one does not want to follow his example.
In modern times a new political model has emerged. Populist rich businesspersons have always been the favorite candidate. But new ones have gone through a major change. This change is built on the Written Word the Law. The law has become God and judgment of right and wrong, sorry no grey or middle road allowed. Armed with the Written Word all actions are legitimized.

A modern populist leader today is not only a successful businessperson but is armed with the written word. The best example today is Senator Tobacco. Senator Tobacco made his beginning millions from class action law suits against American corporations. The victims after splitting the spoils may have gotten a few pennies. Bravo, a successful young politician is born.

But this politician has a competitive advantage over just a successful businessman. This politician has a law degree which is king of all Written Word. Not too long ago the U.S. graduated so many lawyers that even the fast food industry had enough employees. Then came the ultimate politician with a mass influx from the legal field to the political arena. Presto, a star is born the perfect politician a political leader armed with the Written Word the ability to craft laws that are so air tight the politician will not legally be liable for any actions taken.

A simple example from the great state of North Carolina, the opportunity was how do you create a business opportunity to take advantage of the working class poor and not be charged with Federal loan sharking crimes. The lawyer politician creates loopholes to bypass the maximum legal interest rate charges of 30% into 300% by creating a legal paycheck advance company legally able to charge 300%. Now you may ask why was not 30% already enough? The answer is No, basic economics states time has a value in more points than just time or time is money. The lawyer politician in order to stay a populist and popular among the poor must be able to create loopholes that generate large sums of money quickly and then close the loopholes just as quickly when it becomes unpopular in order to stay a populist.

Example number two. Insider information is a great tool for the master of the Written Word. Undisclosed Hedge Funds by its very definition is secretive and thus not legally liable. The Master of the Written Word is able to make millions from the Undisclosed Funds and then quickly come out to the public condemning Undisclosed Funds and promises to close this loophole in the law. Because after all the Master of the Word cannot afford his maid to be able to take advantage of Undisclosed Hedge Funds. The Master would have no one to clean his house since it is the size of a small city. At the same time you eliminate any competitor that may want to join your exclusive country club. The Master must point out to the public that at the time of his involvement the Undisclosed Hedge Funds were perfectly legal and because he is a saint will now close this evil loophole.

How will History judge you? This is not even a concern. History is written by victors and then burned and rewritten by successive new victors. This is why the world is round. But what happens if you write the Master of all Words “that all men are created equal and free”. Do not worry, be happy, you will have at least two hundred years to live up to those words before doing anything about it and then you can grow up to be a super power preaching to the rest of the world how corrupt and undemocratic they are. Because you have become Master of the Word that has eliminated corruption letting Democracy flourish. If you do make a mistake in your Written Word do what the CIA does burn and shred the word or is it first shred and then burn. By destroying the Written Word it never existed and your sainthood is assured.

The answers to the beginning questions are simple. Become Master of the Written Word the Law by becoming a lawyer first and then a politician, only then will your Democracy become legitimized in the eyes of the world. By becoming a Master of the Written Word the Law you can open and close legal loopholes to your heart’s content and even win debates. In fact, you can totally redefine the meaning of corruption. Forget about the colour grey and the Middle Road, it’s much too broad and confusing to stand up to the detailed analysis required by the Masters of the Written Word the Law.

Tawan

3 Baht Self Service Oil

Posted by Tawan , Reader : 328 , 20:55:31
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3 Baht Cheaper Oil

Always low prices wins again. Now Thailand can join the Global ranks of cheap prices and no service.
The self service petrol stations have arrived and the joys of pumping your own petrol has arrived in Thailand at least I will not be standing in the snow pumping petrol.
Globalization is really moving fast but I have to admit that the self service petrol station is a real shocker for me. I thought one of the last standing global competitive edge for Thailand was service.
My friends in America are really laughing now. I never thought I would see this day in Thailand.

Thursday, June 19, 2008

Thailand Dropping Out of Global Community

Thailand Dropping Out Of Global Community
Posted by Tawan , Reader : 1823 , 22:47:14
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Thailand Dropping Out Of Global Community


So sad these days to read the press and forums around Thailand and the world, also very sad to hear retirees, tourists and foreign business people opinions and experiences becoming more and more negative about the Kingdom of Thailand. As a Thai, I hope that these world views do not represent the majority of Thai people. In the final analysis, I hope that these views are pursued by special interest Thais that only care about themselves and not representative of the Thai people.

Since the 1997 crisis, I have become so proud that Thailand has decided to participate in the Global economy with all of its pain and gains to move up the learning curve and become a part of the global community. Thailand has gained and benefited from increase wealth. The Global economy because of technology changes very quickly advantages soon turns to disadvantages only the informed can shift course and adjust to compete. Thailand before 1997 exports were only 20% based on an overvalued pegged baht. Everyone in those days visiting Thailand would tell you everything was too expensive in Thailand compared to other Asian countries. But Thailand chose not to listen (Mei pang Mei pang) but instead followed the special interests and defended the baht to bankruptcy. Today, Thailand is in the opposite situation. Thailand’s exports have grown to over 60% but complaints directed at the BOT have risen from the special interest again without looking at the global trends. Will Thailand develop a black and white or right and wrong or with us or against us world view? Or will Thailand follow common sense and realize the world is mostly grey. Will Thailand again listen to the special interests?

The facts from World Institutions are the US can not continue absorbing Asia’s exports at the current rate. The US balance sheet will continue to be weak as the US readjusts its consumer economy and re-pricing of assets and risks. Next year Asia’s emerging economies lead by China will lead the world’s economic engine for the first time in history not the US. This means that the US dollar will continue its decline and Asia’s domestic economies must be more open including financial market reforms, technology, domestic market reforms, education and human rights.

Warnings to Thailand by World Institutions to develop its domestic financial instruments, Implement foreign exchange hedging by exporters. Develop value added exports, reform education and reform Immigration. Policies, open domestic markets improve human rights to Thais and non Thais. Increase technology investments not censorship and political oppression. Many professionals in Thailand work very hard every day to achieve these goals for a better Thailand.

But, special interests have different answers for Thailand’s future. A recent simple example is the decrease in hotel occupancy rates. Of course the hotel operators blame the baht and fewer tourists when in fact the number of tourist arrivals has increased and the number of new hotels built has increased. Government is not responsible for bad investor decisions. Instead of blaming someone else like children investors should do their homework before whining to the Government.

Flip flopping on issues and laws served Thailand well in the past when Thailand was trying to avoid becoming a colony. Today that strategy sends a bad message to the Global community, special interests making new laws or changing laws when events turn against them to serve their own interest.

Special interest will tell you that foreigners may not own business or foreign retirees may not own their own homes that they have bought and paid for after a lifetime of hard work and saving. Foreign Retirees live on a fixed income and live in fear of being kicked out of their homes or fear immigration’s disrespectful sour face in issuing their yearly visa depends on the immigration officer’s mood and ever increasing difficult immigration laws. Foreign Retiree’s economic contribution to Thai society offering security, supporting entire Thai families and raising children are ignored and their efforts are unwelcome by an ungrateful society. Half foreign Thai children are loved and adored as moving stars or singers but growing up they are tortured physically and mentally by other Thai children. Children are not naturally mean they are taught that way by racist parents. Turn this story of foreigner’s experiences in Thailand around and imagine yourself in a foreign country. Do you want your Thai children going abroad to study and being abused by raciest because they are different? Or do you want to retire abroad and then kicked out of your house at 65 years old because you are Thai? Do you want to go abroad and then be kicked out by new immigration laws? Do you want to go shopping abroad and be cheated by being charged more because you are Thai? Or would it be ok if while you are being cheated it is done with a sarcastic smile and you are perceived as rich. There is nothing more irritating than being smiled at while being cheated. Most foreign tourist save a life time to visit Thailand and contrary to popular opinion can not afford to be cheated. Incomes are relevant yes their salaries are higher but so are their cost of living savings rates are the same as a 4.000 Baht per month Thai worker. Foreigners are not stupid people just as Thais do not like to be called poor stupid farmers more and more of these stories are going around the world. I meet people around the world that knows and have friends in many small and large cities around Thailand not just Bangkok. Thailand is not just known by Bangkok in the world community anymore. Remember what you do to others will come back to you. Soon Thais visiting and living in other countries will be treated the same way as foreigners are in Thailand.

Special interests will use the argument that Thailand is a small, pitiful, poor, uneducated, ignorant undeveloped country that can not compete and needs more time to develope. Slogans created such as “Thailand is for Thais” breeding racism by populist politicians. Special interest will tell you we are protecting Thai culture. Thailand has thousands of years of culture it will not disappear by joining the world community. Thailand is classified as an emerging country with the size and population of a European country. By following populist propaganda Thailand will not have to worry about exports exports will be zero will not have to worry about tourism tourist will go elsewhere that pretty much takes care of foreign exchange policy and foreign reserves there will be no need to participate in the world at all. The world has no time to wait for Thailand. The world will move on to Thailand’s neighbors Vietnam, Laos, Malaysia, China, and Indonesia where conditions are better and where governments are anxious to join the world community and eventually to Burma ( Myanmar) and Cambodia.

Is this the Thailand we want? Do we just want to go on sabai sabai watching the world go by on TV because the world is too tough for our sabai sabai sanook sanook attitude?

Take a look at what our neighbors Malaysia are doing for retirees or Vietnam is doing for foreign investors while we watch sabai sabai. Below I will paste and copy Malaysia’s retirement program. I apologize to the blog purist that hate paste and copy but I do not have the writing skills to write it better. When asked by foreigners, is Thailand a good place to visit or retire or invest, I am ashamed to say Thailand’s neighbors will treat you better and more fairly.

Eligibility.
The programme is open to all foreign citizens except those married to Malaysians and citizens of Israel, Serbia and Yugoslavia. The restriction on foreigners married to Malaysians was made at the end of 2006. They are required to apply for a spouse visa.
Finance/Income
The following sets out the financial criteria which depend on the age of the applicant. If a married couple apply the oldest person’s age decides the appropriate criteria.

It should be noted that applicants who choose the fixed deposit option do not have to place it until their visa application is approved. At that time they will receive a “conditional approval” letter by the immigration department. They have to bring this letter, together with evidence of completing any other conditions specified in the letter, to the immigration department. The visa will then be stamped in their passport.

i) Applicants aged below 50 years old:

• Must open a fixed deposit account of RM300,000
• Can withdraw up to RM240,000 for the purchase of house, medical insurance or children’s education expenses after the deposit has been placed for one year.
• Must maintain a minimum balance of RM60,000 from second year onwards and throughout stay in Malaysia under this programme.
ii) Applicants aged 50 years and above:

• Have to place a fixed deposit account of RM150,000. (If they receive a government pension or a pension from a well recognized global company in excess of the RM10,000 the requirement may be waived)
• Can withdraw up to RM90,000 of the fixed deposit after one year to purchase of house, medical insurance or children’s education expenses.
• Must maintain a minimum balance of RM60,000 throughout their stay in Malaysia under this programme.
Sponsor/Assistance
There is no longer a requirement for a Malaysian sponsor. This requirement is only necessary if you use an agent in which case the agent will act as your sponsor. If you need assistance making the application we offer this service (click here). You may make the application without coming to Malaysia and once the letter of conditional approval is issued we will advise you and you have six months to come to Malaysia and collect the visa.
Insurance Coverage / Medical Report
Applicants must possess a medical insurance coverage from any insurance company that is valid in Malaysia. This may be waived for older applicants who are denied coverage because of their age. All applicants are required to have a medical examination in Malaysia.
Education
Applicants are allowed to bring along their dependants (children) either not schooling or are schooling in primary, secondary or in any Institution of higher Learning. Dependants who are schooling are also required to apply for a Student Pass to continue their education in schools or Institutions of Higher Learning recognised by the government. Children have to be aged under 18 to be included under the MM2H visa programme.
Taxes
Successful applicants are bound by the policies, systems and regulations of taxes of this country however their overseas income will not be taxed in Malaysia.
Security Vetting
Approvals are given subject to security vetting clearance conducted by the Royal Malaysian Police.
Restrictions
Successful applicants are STRICTLY forbidden from the following:
* Being employed anywhere in Malaysia unless approved by the government.
* Participating in activities that can be considered as sensitive to the local people like political or missionary activities.


SEE “APPLICATION PROCEDURES” FOR INFORMATION ON HOW TO APPLY"